Nobody knows how much is actually planted
Somali agricultural statistics are largely built from estimates, sampling and the previous year’s figures. That is workable for a report and dangerous for a response, because by the time a shortfall is confirmed on the ground the planting window it belonged to has closed.
Three things a season has to tell you
Each of these is measurable from orbit, repeatedly, across the whole country, without sending anyone anywhere.
How much went in the ground?
Cropped area at the start of a season, by district and by crop type where the signature allows it. Compared against previous seasons, this is the first genuine indicator that something is different — weeks before any yield estimate exists.
- Cropped area by district and season
- Year-on-year comparison against the same imagery source
- Irrigated versus rainfed, where the two separate clearly
How is it doing?
Vegetation indices track crop vigour through the season. A field under stress diverges from a healthy one long before the divergence is visible from a road, which is what turns this from reporting into early warning.
- Vegetation health through the growing period
- Stress detection against the seasonal norm
- Anomaly flagging at district level
Where will the shortfall be?
Combining area and health gives a production picture with enough lead time to matter — for procurement, for pre-positioning, for an insurance trigger, or simply for knowing which districts to visit first.
Drought & flood →- Production estimates by administrative area
- Comparison against a multi-year baseline
- Output a procurement or response team can act on
Four groups asking the same question
They ask for different reasons and on different timescales, but the underlying measurement is the same one.
Ministries
Agricultural planning and food security monitoring that rests on a current measurement rather than last year’s figure.
Humanitarian programmes
Early warning and targeting, with evidence that stands up when the response has to be justified afterwards.
Insurers & lenders
Index-based products need an independent, repeatable measurement rather than a claim. This is that measurement.
Agribusiness
Procurement planning, supply forecasting and knowing which growing areas are worth the logistics this season.
Name the districts and the decision
Tell us which areas matter and what you would do differently if the answer came back badly. We will tell you what can be measured, at what accuracy, how often, and what it costs.